PoliticalChatter

Forget the Bradley effect and toss out the electoral maps on MSNBC and Chuck Todd. The fact is history is not on Barack Obama’s side. Since the end of LBJ, lets look at the presidential history of this nation.

Richard Nixon (R), Gerald Ford (R), Jimmy Carter (D), Ronald Reagan (R), George Bush (R), Bill Clinton (D) and George W. Bush (R). That is exactly two Democratic Presidents since 1968, not a good equation for Barack Obama. Making things even more difficult on Obama is the fact that A. Jimmy Carter was elected after Watergate and B. Bill Clinton, his first term, was the result of a split Republican party. Now, it can be said that the Republicans are battered and bruised, down and out, but something seems to have motivated them in the last few weeks and that something is Obama’s own words.

The recent radio interview tapes released, showing Obama questioning the Constitution and his spread the wealth comments have not only scared the conservatives, but motivated them. We see this in the polls and if we can believe it, the early voting turnout as the difference in Florida is almost zero.

So, what does this all mean? If the conservatives are motivated and with a country that outside of the urban areas, leans center to right are motivated, John McCain will pull this off. If they remain lukewarm  about John McCain, than Barack Obama is the next President of the United States.