Sep 29 2008
Red is Red and Blue is Blue
Political talk this morning is of course the bail out. The bill is being debated and soon passed, but the fall out is still coming. It will be interesting to see how this is spun and which presidential candidate comes out on top. One aspect to watch is to see if the conservatives are deflated a bit with John McCain.
Barack Obama’s inner circle is talking about a landslide victory based on first time voters, this is nothing more than moral building. Sure first time voters may flood the ballot boxes, but history shows even with a great turnout it won’t be that great. Also, Obama is talking about Indiana and Florida. Both states are doubtful for Obama and this is the same as when Republicans talk about New Jersey.
There are some states that can be flipped andColorado is certainly one that can go for Obama, along withVirginia. For McCain he has a chance to make some inroads in the
Great Lakes with Michigan, Wisconsin and even Minnesota. Michigan is in turmoil, mostly under Dem rule, putting it in play. Wisconsin and Minnesota like the maverick idea and McCain could pull some votes.
However, with all the talk about this voting group and that group, look for the red states to stay red and the blue states blue. When election night comes all eyes will turn towards Ohio and Virginia, they will decided the winner.
4 Responses to “Red is Red and Blue is Blue”
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According to all of the daily tracking polls, excluding outliers, the states you mentioned that could go McCain’s way, MI, WI, MN, are all leaning heavily towards Obama, some hitting the 50% mark Sunday(which reflects the debate in the polling). Indiana is now at 47-46 in favor of McCain, down from 55-33 only six weeks ago. McCain did the Hoosier state a great dis-service at the debate by slamming ethanol. Ethanol is a huge boon for Indiana farmers, most of it subsidized, and is also the number one source of fuel for NASCAR there. Also, McCain has ignored Indiana thus far, and even though he’s pumping some cash there now, it’s only eight days worth of ads. If he has to pull resources from another state to compete in states that are historically GOP locks, then he risks losing heavily in key swing states. North Carolina is a dead heat. Nevada is leaning heavily towards Obama, and the huge gaffe by McCain’s Communications Director could do further damage to him in that state. Colorado is a lock for Obama at this point, and New Hampshire is currently a tie at 46-46. McCain can win both Ohio and Florida and still lose the election if VA, NC, CO, NM, NH, and PA go to Obama.
The simple reality is that the trad. Red State/Blue State theory is only working for the Blue States.
The first sentence of this comment eliminates the validity of the entire comment…The daily tracking polls mean almost nothing at this point and certainly do not eliminate years of voter tendencies… Ethanol is kiiling most farmers as the price for grain is skyrocketing as has other commodities for the farmer. Talk to them and they will tell you they wish ethanol would go away.
I have. I’ve spoken with more farmers in the last year than I can count. In the state of Indiana, they’re overwhelmingly grateful to have another outlet for their crop.
I’ll make this prediction, with the help of www.fivethirtyeight.com
MI, WI, MN, NV, CO, VA, PA, OH, IN, NH all go Blue
FL stays red thanks to a colossal suppress the vote effort, and so does NC for the same reason.
The electoral votes will look like this O: 317 M: 221
No, I don’t pay too much attention to tracking polls, but over the last two weeks, they have all shown a marked movement towards Barack Obama. Even in Kentucky and West Virginia and Arizona. In fact, the only Red States to win by 20 points will be UT, ID, NE, KS, OK, and AL
Your statements about FL and NC really make you look partisan and foolish. Also, I live in the heart of the small farmer world and trust me they are being destroyed by the high commodities and most see very little benefit to ethanol, only the corp. farms are benefiting from it. Finally, the states you listed are really no different than what I said, except I looked at from both sides, you are taking a partisan approach, which seperates us.