Jul 28 2008
Predicting the Presidential Race…
Pundits, current author included, fully enjoy offering predictions aimed at predicting the presidential race. We provide statistical numbers, voter patterns and simple momentum as our tools of evidential proof. Admittedly, this entire process is nothing more than an exercise of guessing.
There is no greater unknown than the future. Even within hours of an event happening, most cannot be predicted and the individual lives that it will affect are unaware until the actual happening. What I am attempting to say is; we cannot predict the future. But, we can play a game of simulation, asking what would happen if A happened.
So, let’s analyze the following situation. The world or the United States, faces another 9/11 type attack or Iran rolls out a nuclear missile, capable of wiping out Israel. How would this alter the presidential campaign?
Such an event as the one mentioned above would likely flip the polls and the list of those things voters are concerned about. So where would that leave the presidential campaign? Currently Barack Obama is seen as the frontrunner, but foreign affairs are his weakness. His opponent John McCain is all about foreign affairs, hoping too use them as his winning hand. With that, one could assume that a campaign dominated by foreign rather than domestic issues is a positive for McCain. It seems a logical conclusion, but could prove a wrong one.
A shocking terrorist attack could play into the argument that Bush’s and McCain’s approach has changed nothing and in fact has only worked to increase the hatred of America. A nuclear Iran may demonstrate to voters that ignoring and playing hardball with a rogue nation only pushes them into lashing out.
Barack Obama could offer such arguments, both with solid foundations and it could work in his favor. However, the problem facing Obama in such a situation is fear. Fear is currently working in his favor. Fear over higher gas and food prices. Fear off a housing melt down and fear of what tomorrow will bring economically. Fear is so powerful that there is no rebutting it, it simply engulfs voters and is easily marketed.
A terrorist attack or some other frightful foreign event would transform this fear and send the voters flocking to the more experienced, older John McCain and turning the election upside down.
One Response to “Predicting the Presidential Race…”
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Yes another attack on America would help more people to vote for McCain! I just do not understand why people do not see that our safety is the most important issue in this election. We have not been attack since 9/11 and that is because of the Bush administration! I think Iran is just waiting to blow up Israel, waiting for Obama to become President, because they know he is weak.